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Energy

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Data sources: 1

Electricity

Based on past trends, we project the following development of energy generation.

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Data sources: 2

In 2022, Resources for the Future 3 summarized the projections of several major energy scenarios. A brief overview of their conclusions is as follows.

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The scenarios, detailed below, can be divided into four categories. "Reference" scenarios assume no additional effort at greenhouse gas mitigation. "Evolving Policy" scenarios assume some additional policy effort but no specific warming target. The "1.5°C Warming Scenario" and "2°C Warming Scenario" are crafted to roughly achieve a total warming target.

World primary energy consumption is expected to grow through at least midcentury except under some aggressive climate change mitigation scenarios. Fossil fuel usage may decline, but it is not expected to disappear even under aggressive mitigation. Renewable energy is expected to continue growing strongly.

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Source: RFF 3.

Electricity is expected to grow, both in absolute terms and as a share of total energy, in most scenarios as more energy usages are electrified. Fossil fuels are expected to disappear from electricity production only under aggressive decarbonization. Wind and solar power are expected to grow significantly, and renewables used less widely today, such as geothermal and wave, might also become significant.

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Source: RFF 3.

Without concerted decarbonization effort, world emissions may continue to increase to 2050.

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Source: RFF 3.

Carbon capture and sequestration might play a much larger role, allowing continued burning of fossil fuels with fewer emissions.

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Source: RFF 3, with present values from Statista 4.

The scenarios considered are as follows.

ClassScenario
ReferenceU.S. EIA Equinor Rivalry IRENA PES OPEC Shell Islands
Evolving PoliciesEquinor Reform IEA APS IEA STEPS Shell Waves
2°C Warming ScenarioEquinor Rebalance IEA SDS BNEF Green BNEF Grey BNEF Red
1.5° Warming ScenarioIEA NZE IRENA 1.5 Shell Sky1.5

Source: RFF 3, with present values from the IEA 5. Scenarios considered are from Equinor 6, Bloomberg New Energy Finance [^4], the International Energy Agency 7, the International Renewable Energy Agency 8, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries 9, Shell plc 10, and the U. S. Energy Information Administration 11.

References

  1. Urban Cruise Ship. Energy Production Forecast. ↩

  2. Urban Cruise Ship. Electricity Production Forecast. ↩

  3. Raimi, D., Campbell, E., Newell, R., Prest, B., Villanueva, S., Wingenroth, J. "Global Energy Outlook 2022: Turning Points and Tension in the Energy Transition". Resources for the Future. April 2022. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6

  4. Statista. "Capacity of operational large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities worldwide from 2012 to 2021". Accessed May 21, 2022. ↩

  5. International Energy Agency. "World Energy Balances: Overview". August 2021. ↩

  6. Equinor. "Energy Perspectives". 2021. ↩

  7. International Energy Agency. "World Energy Model". October 2021. ↩

  8. International Renewable Energy Agency. "Global Renewables Outlook". April 2020. ↩

  9. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. "World Oil Outlook". 2021. ↩

  10. Shell plc. "Shell Scenarios". Accessed May 21, 2022. ↩

  11. U. S. Energy Information Administration. "International Energy Outlook 2021". October 2021. ↩