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Feeding the World

The world grows plenty of food to meet the needs of humanity, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, but land use is a challenge.

Production Overview

From 2014 to 2017, the world produced the following crops annually.

The image: "world_crop_production.svg" cannot be found!

Source: FAOSTAT 1.

The world produced 34.17 million tons of pet food in 2021 2, with an impact of the equivalent of 56 to 151 million tons of CO2, 41-58 million hectares of agricultural land, and 5-11 km3 of water usage 3.

Future Food and Land Needs

In the first half of the 21st century, the following increases in demand for food have been predicted.

The image: "projected_crop_growth.svg" cannot be found!

Sources: Alexandratos and Bruinsma 4, Ray et al. 5, Tilman et al. 6.

Increases in population and food consumption, as well as a shift to a carnivorous diet, should increase the land required to feed humanity, while increasing yields should decrease land requirements.

The image: "world_ag_land_projected.svg" cannot be found!

Sources: Clark and Tilman 7, FAO 8, FAOSTAT 1, Froehlich et al. 9, World Bank (10 and 11), World Population Prospects 12.

During the years of the Green Revolution in the second half of the 20th century, world crop yields grew rapidly. That rate of increase may be slowing.

The image: "yield_trends.svg" cannot be found!

Historical annual growth in crop yields, as reported by Our World in Data 13 and FAOSTAT 1. For future overall annual yield growth projections, the FAO 8 reports the conservative estimate and Mauser et al. 14 report the optimstic estimate. Ray et al. 5 provide estimates for yield growth for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans.

While substantial yield improvements are still possible, the slowdown may be a sign of diminishing returns from plant genetics 15.

Problem:
Land Use in Agriculture
Solution:
Research to Improve Yields

Malnutrition

World hunger is declining, but severe problems of malnutrition remain, and now more people suffer from problems related to an excess of food than insufficient food.

The image: "malnutrition_stats.svg" cannot be found!

On an energy supply basis, the world grows more than enough food to meet human needs.

The image: "food_adequacy.svg" cannot be found!

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 18.

Impact of Food Prices

High food prices cause reduce consumption and cause malnutrition.

The image: "food_price_impact.svg" cannot be found!

Source: Green et al. 19.

High prices, such as during the commodity price spike of the late 2000s, are a major contributor to malnutrition 20, 21. Furthermore, high food prices force poor families to cut back on health care and education, setting back a country's development 22. Historically, a 1% rise in crude oil prices correlates with a 0.3% rise in food prices on average 23.

The growth of the biofuels industry is tightening the link between food and fuel prices 24. The following food price increases from biofuel production have been estimated.

The image: "biofuel_food_price.svg" cannot be found!

Source: Chakravorty et al. 25. Most models show that biofuel production increase food prices--see the survey paper 26--though some research disputes this link, e.g. 27.

Beyond the humanitarian implications, high food prices cause political unrest and fuel terrorism, creating security problems for the rest of the world 28. Disruptions to food supply, such as caused by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, cause serious problems 28.

Problem:
Food Security
Solution:
Strategic Food Reserves

Fertilizer prices have also been volatile, prompting the People's Republic of China to impose fertilizer export controls 29. For these reasons, a strategic fertilizer reserve, modeled after the Strategic Petroleum Reserve 30, may also be appropriate.

References

  1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. "FAOSTAT". ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  2. Tyler, J. Global pet food production up 8.2% in 2021. Pet Food Processing. January 2022. ↩

  3. Alexander, P., Berri, A., Moran, D., Reay, D., Rounsevell, M. D. A. "The global environmental paw print of pet food". Global Environmental Change 65: 102153. November 2020. ↩

  4. Alexandratos, N., Bruinsma, J. "World Agriculture Toward 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision". Global Perspective Studies Team, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. June 2012. ↩

  5. Ray, D., Mueller, N., West, P., Foley, J. "Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050". PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. June 2013. ↩ ↩2

  6. Tilman, D., Balzer C., Hill, J, and Befort, B. ["Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture"]([7] ChemAnalyst. "Ammonia Price Trend and Forecast". Accessed May 3, 2022.). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108(5) pp. 20260–20264. October 2011. ↩

  7. Clark, M., Tilman, D. "Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of agricultural production systems, agricultural input efficiency, and food choice". Environmental Research Letters 12(6). June 2017. ↩

  8. Food and Agriculture Organization. "Global agriculture towards 2050". Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics Division. October 2009. ↩ ↩2

  9. Froehlich, H., Runge, C., Gentry, R., Gaines, S., Halpern, B. "Comparative terrestrial feed and land use of an aquaculture-dominant world". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115(20), pp. 5295-5300. May 2018. ↩

  10. The World Bank. "Agricultural land (% of land area)". Accessed January 5, 2020. ↩

  11. The World Bank. "Arable land (% of land area)". Accessed January 5, 2020. ↩

  12. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. "World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision". Accessed April 18, 2019. ↩

  13. Roser, M., Ritchie, H. "Crop Yields". Our World in Data. Accessed January 5, 2020. ↩

  14. Mauser, W., Klepper, G., Zabel, F., Delzeit, R., Hank, T., Putzenlechner, B., Calzadilla, A. "Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion". Nature Communications 6, Article Number 8946. November 2015. ↩

  15. Bloom, N., Jones, C., Ven Reenen, J., Webb, M. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?". American Economic Review 110(4), pp. 1104-1144. April 2020. ↩

  16. Development Initiatives. 2018 Global Nutrition Report: Shining a light to spur action on nutrition. Bristol, UK: Development Initiatives. 2018. ↩

  17. World Health Organization. "Malnutrition". Fact Sheet. February 2018. ↩

  18. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. "FAO Statistical Pocketbook: 2015". 2015. ↩ ↩2

  19. Green R,. et al. "The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression". BMJ 2013;346:f3703. June 2013. ↩

  20. Brinkman, H., de Pee, S., Sanogo, I., Subran, L., Bloem, M. "High Food Prices and the Global Financial Crisis Have Reduced Access to Nutritious Food and Worsened Nutritional Status and Health". The Journal of Nutrition 140(1), pp. 153S-161S. January 2010. ↩

  21. Christian, P. "Impact of the Economic Crisis and Increase in Food Prices on Child Mortality: Exploring Nutritional Pathways". The Journal of Nutrition 140(1), pp. 177S-181S. January 2010. ↩

  22. Meerman, J., Aphane, J. "Impact of High Prices on Nutrition". FAO Nutrition Division (ESN). November 2012. ↩

  23. Baffes, J., Dennis, A. "Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices". The World Bank, Development Prospects Group & Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Trade Department. May 2013. ↩

  24. Bakhat, M., Würzburg, K. "Price Relationships of Crude Oil and Food Commodities". 2013. ↩

  25. Chakravorty, U., Hubert, M., Moreaux, M., Nøstbakken, L. "Long‐Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices". The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 119(3). May 2016. ↩

  26. Ncube, F., Ndlovu, K., Tsegaye, A. "The Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices; The Experiences of Brazil and United States". Advanced Journal of Social Science 2(1). January 2018. ↩

  27. Shrestha, D., Staab, D., Duffield, J. "Biofuel impact on food prices index and land use change". Biomass and Bioenergy 124, pp. 43-53. May 2019. ↩

  28. Hamilton, T. "Food Insecurity: Why the U.S. Needs a Strategic Food Reserve". American Security Project. February 2022. ↩ ↩2

  29. Adachi, A. "PRC Fertilizer Export Controls Provoke Derisking Abroad". The Jamestown Foundation. October 2024. ↩

  30. Goldwyn, D. L., Gill, C. R. "Chapter 20 Update: Managing Strategic Reserves". 2015. ↩