Wind Power

Wind power is one of the most advanced renewable energy sources, comprising almost 5% of world electricity as of 2018 ¹. See our analysis of offshore wind in the context of energy from oceans.

Wind Energy Cost

The following portrays the cost from onshore, offshore, and other potential forms of wind power.

Data sources: Carbon Trust ², de Pee et al. ³, Electric Power Research Institute ⁴, Ennis and Bacelli ⁵, IEA et al. ⁶, International Renewable Energy Agency ⁷, Kost et al. ⁸, Lazard ⁹, Logan et al. ¹⁰, Mann ¹¹, Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force ¹², OpenEI ¹³, PD Ports ¹⁴, The Crown Estate ¹⁵, EIA ¹⁶.

Grid integration costs for wind power are estimated at 1.5 ¢/kWh ¹⁷.

Historically, the cost of wind decreases by about 7% for each doubling of installed capacity ¹⁸, ¹⁹. The International Energy Agency projects a 25% cost reduction by 2050 ²⁰.

Environmental Considerations

We estimate the following external costs from wind power from greenhouse gas emissions, non-greenhouse air pollutants, and scenic disamenities.

Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated from Schlömer et al. ²¹, valued at $50/ton CO₂-equivalent ²²; other air pollution damages and valuation of scenic disamenities are estimated from Samadi ²³. Deaths of birds and bats from turbine operation are not included ²⁴.

Public concern about the visual appearance of turbines, noise, and health impacts can impede project develoment ²⁵. There is little evidence behind the fear of "wind turbine syndrome", the idea that the sound generated by wind turbines causes adverse health effects ²⁶.

Research Priorities

Although the wind industry is mature, there are several innovations under development that will likely further improve its performance.

Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

A vertical-axis wind turbine is arranged so that the rotor shaft is perpendicular to the wind, in contrast to the more common horizontal axis turbines. VAWTs are used primary for microgrids and harsh environments ²⁷, but they could provide better land-use efficiency ²⁸ and lower cost ²⁹ than HAWTs for offshore wind.

Levelized costs of electricity are assessed for a 5 MW offshore wind array, assuming both VAWT and HAWT technology is developed to maturity. Source: ³⁰.

However, VAWTs are not proven at scale, and some engineers are skeptical of the concept ³¹.

Turbine Size

Larger turbines generally produce electricity at lower financial and environmental costs ³², and both onshore and offshore wind turbine have been steadily growing in size.

Historical onshore turbine sizes are given by Wiser et al., 2018 ³³, and future size projections and historical offshore sizes are given by Wiser et al., 2016 ³⁴.

Turbine Technology

Several studies suggest that adding winglets to the tips of turbine blades would increase power output ³⁵, ³⁶, ³⁷, perhaps by 2-8% ³⁸. Winglets would also reduce high-frequency noise ³⁹.

New generator technologies have the potential to reduce costs. Two leading candidates are superconducting drivetrains and pseudo direct drive generators based on permanent magnets, though cost reductions in superconducting material are needed for the former to be feasible ⁴⁰. Potential advantages of a superconducting drivetrain include reduced generator weight ⁴¹ and reduced reliance on potentially scarce dysprosium ⁴².

High-Altitude Wind

A high-altitude wind turbine, flown with a kite, would access the less intermittent jetstream wind source and could further reduce intermittency by adjusting altitude ⁴³. Miller, Gans, and Kleidon ⁴⁴ estimate that the jetstream potential resource is 7.5 TW, less than half of world energy use, and harvesting all of it would cause climate disruption, whereas Archer and Caldeira ⁴³ estimate that high-altitude wind could supply all the world's energy needs without climate impact. The risk of an accident is also uncertain.

We estimate the cost of a high-altitude wind research program to be about $22 billion and the expected benefit $21 billion. As the technology is far from commercialization, we estimate the time for such a program is 25 years ⁴⁵, at the same $830 million annual cost as a proposed wave energy research program. The potential cost is estimated to be as low as 2.5 ¢/kWh ⁴⁶. We assume that high-altitude wind has the same greehounse gas and non-GHG impacts as conventional wind, except a zero visual disamenity cost is assumed. For the purposes of this calculation, we assume the more expansive resource availability of Archer and Caldeira. See our analysis of research and development for more information.

While the expected cost and benefit of high-altitude wind are approximately equal, both are highly uncertain. These estimates would benefit greatly from more research into the resource potential in particular.

Hurricanes and Tornados

Hurricanes and tornados carry an intense amount of energy, but modern wind turbines are not able to harvest it, and they must be shut down during hurricanes to prevent damage ⁴⁷, ⁴⁸. Developing turbines that can harvest hurricane-force winds is an active area of research, such as by the Japanese company Challenergy ⁴⁹.

Atmospheric Vortex Engine

An atmospheric vortex engine is a device, similar to but simpler than a solar updraft tower, that creates artificial tornado conditions with an external source of heat, such as solar power, and harvests energy from them ⁵⁰. The concept may have promise, but it is in the early stages of development ⁵¹.